Byron Nelson +9.2 units
A little recap of how the Byron Nelson played out for yours truly. Started off hot and cooled off towards the end. Which it probably should be the opposite usually, especially on a new course for these players.
You can always count on the public overplaying things like Spieth at his home course, or Spieth in general. His lines are always outrageous and there is value there when you catch the right golfer.
Leishman was a runaway. Chose him because of the hype surrounding Adam Scott coming into it. Leishman is always a solid play and when he is even money in this scenario and the public all over Scott, it was an easy play. Howell over gribble was a safe pick. Haas faltered late and Knox salvaged a tie. Game, set, match. Time to move on.
This was a great day, close to being perfect. If it weren’t for Sergio bogeying two of the last three to tie, and jimmy walker missing Spieths pace by one shot, would have been a coming out party. Regardless, I will never complain about a day with these scores.
Started off with Adam Scott plus money after leishmans stellar Thursday. Funny thing about golf is that no one duplicates those kind of days back to back. Public sees leishman -10 after one day is all over it. Easy money. The eventual champ, Aaron wise over Keith Mitchell was a play of who I thought was more ready between the two rookies after day 1. Cashed it. Branden grace was my safe play against sneds. Hideki getting good odds against Kuch was an easy pick for me. He didn’t have a great tournament but he’s still one of the best in the world and on a normal day, better than Kuchar. This was one of those days.
Should have known when Hideki tied Johnson Wagner for a tough push that it would be one of those days. Grace pounded Ancer as expected but it went downhill quickly. Matt Jones surprisingly humped Adam Scott into submission by 4. Leishman kicked off the weekend by losing by 1 to Aaron wise in what would become a trend and Kevin Na edged out Jimmy walker by 1. Not good. Not a quitter though.
Grace and Hideki were my easy picks. Grace was no contest and nearly made a run at first. A big name like Hideki over a rookie is gonna get units more often than not. Jimmy walker over Na was just a play on the fact that Kevin Na has rarely fared well in the final group or two. Just think he gets in his own head and i would point to his reaction to a lip out on Sunday as case and point. Composure would be key on a Sunday, and although some guys have reactions to good or bad, Na doesn’t regroup and stays tilted. Nick Taylor over Vaughn Taylor was a value play. Nick isn’t as bad as the price made him look and Vaughn certainly isn’t as good as the price he was getting. Got units. Billy Horschel had a disappointing tournament and so I went with Wagner who was playing very well and had a value price. Same with Uihlein. Thought he had a Sunday run in him with no pressure of being near the top and at a good price against Adam Scott. Whoops. Still came out ahead which is the only thing that matters
Up 9.2 units
Onto Colonial and the Ft Worth Invitational. Look for good numbers from accurate drivers of the ball. We can only take what we know and apply it so using the driving accuracy stats will be important to gauge success for this one. Rickie is traditionally more accurate than Jon Rahm so that’s my first big play. It’s golf so a lot of times there needs to be adjusted strategies depending who has it for the week, who just set a course record cause they won’t do it back to back, etc. Golfs a beautiful thing in that aspect, where you just don’t know what can happen and, a lot of times, there’s no way to see the result coming.
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