Fort Worth Invitational Recap

Total Units: +16.94

Record: 21-13-5

Win Percentage 61.8%

Started off hot again having a fantastic Thursday.  Things slowed down as the week progressed, with Sunday being the only loss across the board.

It’s another positive tournament with The Memorial on the Horizon.  Justin Rose continues to be one of the most steady and reliable golfers in the world. Brooks Koepka was on his tail but never a real threat.  As soon as Rose took over the lead it was on cruise control.

Day 1 Thursday: 6-2

Put small bets on Kisner over Spieth and O’Hair over Hadley given the price they were receiving.  Kisner has done very well in this tournament in the past and he just didn’t get anything going. O’Hair was a value pick as I didn’t think a +120 price was fair.  Only two losses for the day.

Colonial is not a bombers course, or an inaccurate driver’s course rather.  That’s why Rickie getting -105 vs. Rahm was a safe pick for decent odds. Put a hard bet on this one.  Cashed Dufner over Harman since he has played very well in this tournament as well. Harman I don’t think has it clicking right now.  I fortunately caught Grillo before he found his swing and cashed Charley Hoffman with plus money.  Austin Cook over Russell Henley was my least confident pick with the smallest wager.  Was hoping the rookie would pull through with plus money and fortunately did. Justin Rose over Aaron Wise was the easiest pick of the day.  Yes, Aaron Wise just won a tournament and turned a corner.  Public sees that and likes that play.  I see that and think he will have a tournament hangover.  He hasn’t won before, hasn’t had to get that attention and felt that celebration, and then turn around and head to the next tournament.  Easy money. Adam Scott getting plus money from Webb Simpson was a nice value.  He has started to get back to form and as long as putter isn’t hurting him, he can help out a bettor. He worked out and onto day two we go.

Day 2 Friday: 4-2-1

To start, Kisner was +195.  Hard to resist that number and it almost paid off.  Sad it didn’t but it happens and, as always, it’s golf. He pushed with Spieth.  Tried some continuation bets, riding some momentum since there was a lot of it.  Charley Hoffman got smoked as Grillo took him to the woodshed. Dufner had a terrible day that I didn’t see coming.  It’s one thing to not play as well as the H2H but he played himself out of making the cut.

Onto the good stuff.  Rose was again an easy pick.  Wise missed the cut and I figured he would struggle.  Louis Oosthuizen is just a quality player who is familiar with the course and has played well there.  I think Cameron Smith is still pulling money from his performance at The Masters. He is a terribly accurate driver of the ball so Louis would edge him out in my eyes and he did. Nick Watney had a horrific Day 1 and is 182nd in driving accuracy. I picked Russell Knox over him.  Knox has been playing some quality golf and that was a wrap there.  Rickie over Rahm again with better odds than yesterday and, unsurprising to me, edged him again. Solid cut day all around.

Day 3 Saturday: 7-4-1

Just an OK day Saturday.  I expected more from Cejka against Kevin Na, but Na mopped the floor with him. Na is playing some fantastic golf, not as fidgety and slow as he used to be either.  Beau Hossler I thought was a safe play but he was horrible down the stretch.  He is on my list of stay-aways until further notice.  Ryan Armour has been playing well and I picked Jason Kokrak over him. Lesson learned.  Martin Piller was doing very well the first two days, so having him as a great value pick I thought could work out. It did not. McGirt pushed with Chris Kirk at a good price so that hurt as well.

On a good note, continued to ride the Rose wave and, this time, over Grillo.  Brooks Koepka outdueled a quality Satoshi Kodaira for me. Rickie had a pretty rough price but I decided to take him for an easy dub over Tom Lovelady.  Charley Hoffman over Andrew Putnam was an easy choice with Putnam sitting 134th in driving accuracy.  I took Russell Knox over Jimmy Walker as well.

When it comes to making the cut, the players that are paired typically have the same scores.  That means they are playing similar golf.  When it came to choosing Tim Herron over Streelman at +219, that’s what was going through my mind. Streelman is a solid golfer but nothing that I feel warrants those odds. Steve Stricker getting +150 against Spieth is not smart at the surface.  But when you realize he is playing solid on Champions Tour and is a past winner here, I took it and it paid. Time for the final day.

Day 4 Sunday: 4-5-3

Final day was the lone losing day.  At one point it was looking ROUGH so, sad to say, it ended up being fine. Beau Hossler continued to not play well, which cost him against Hadley.  Matt Kuchar amazingly lost to Joaquin Niemann. Rickie couldn’t get it done against a surging Hoffman. Brooks Koepka edged Justin Rose as he was cruising to victory. I took a flyer on Corey Conners given the value and that wasn’t close. I pushed on Oosthuizen vs. Rahm, Satoshi vs. Harris English, and Knox vs. Joel Dahmen. Hard to figure the last one but it happens.

And the saving face picks. Michael Thompson took down Whee Kim.  I took Kevin Na over Tyrone Van Aswegen which paid off. He torched the course on the final day. Kokrak did not play spectacular the remainder of the tournament so I took Tim Herron over him and Herron cashed again at great odds. Ryan Armour over JT Poston at almost even money was a simple decision as well.

Not too bad of a tournament.  Looking forward to The Memorial, which in my eyes is the 6th Major.  Dufner took it home last year, overcoming a 77 on Saturday.  The field is epic and should be a great tournament with Major level conditions. I have 11 picks on the line for Thursday and will recap later.  Thanks for reading and stay tuned.


Categories: Blog, Golf, Picks

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