US Open picks and a summary of how we got units again
Total Units: 14.84
Win Percentage: 56%
What a week for another major. USGA running home with their tail between their legs. Koepka proving he is for real to anyone who didn’t already know that. Tommy Fleetwood with a Sunday to be remembered with a putt on 18 he will want to forget. There was a little bit of everything, as you would expect at the US Open. Players were complaining, which typically you can write off the mentally weak who want everything to be easy. Let’s dive into how we fared.
Day 1 Thursday 10-8
This was a nice start. Could have been better but we had some late flops.
The Losses- Jimmy Walker over Louis Oosthuizen. Walker was on a lot of people’s radars for a sleeper pick and he was plus money. Tyrell Hatton over Ian Poulter was another plus money that didn’t turn out with the expectation Poulter folding due to being mentally weak. Berger I thought was a good price because he was coming into the event in good form and Chappell has been struggling. A surprising upset. Picked Hideki over Leishman and that didn’t work out. I expected Rahm to run away from Sergio and he finished horribly. Fleetwood I was high on, especially over Noren but he faltered. Smith over Perez as the favorite was weak. Adam Scott over Stenson at plus money was a hopeful pick but he got smoked.
The Wins- Spieth at almost even money over Rory. Rickie over Hideki as a heavy favorite. Kuchar handled DeChambeau at plus money. Bryson complained about the course from day one which is a horrible sign. Rodgers won over Sharma. Was pretty confident in Grillo over Bradley as I have been fading Keegan the majority of the year. JT over Tiger is easy money especially on the first day of a tournament. DJ over JT at -120 was an easy choice. Ross Fisher at plus money against Kisner was a no brainer. Kisner has not found his swing. Si Woo Kim against Hao Tong Li was because Si Woo is trending up and it is a major so I didn’t expect a ton from Li. Ben An has been very good lately so I took him over Shane Lowry.
Day 2 Friday 10-5-1
This was a very nice day with quality results.
The Losses- Took Snedeker over Dufner because Sneds has been playing well and Dufner’s putting struggles are difficult to watch. Putnam over Zalatoris I thought was an easy play but he didn’t do well. Took Cantlay over Brian Harman and he failed to play well. I thought Rory would turn it around on the second day against Phil and he didn’t put up much of a fight. For the second day I took Kuchar over DeChambeau and Bryson must have gotten over his course issues while it was scoreable.
Pushed Jimmy Walker over Justin Rose at +213
The Wins- Ross Fisher took care of Adam Hadwin at plus money. Ben An over Lowry for the second day in a row. Branden Grace, another sleeper for the tournament, at plus money beat out Paul Casey. Koepka over Jason Day at even money was a simple pick. People weren’t paying attention to Brooks and how he was playing, and Jason Day is a high ball hitter on a windy course. Hatton got Poulter today due to Ian’s meltdown. Took Phil and Rory both at plus money over Spieth as Jordan’s woes continue. Berger over Chappell again finally paid. Had too much confidence in that matchup for it to work at least 50%. Leishman over Hideki at even money was the way to go after day one. Fitzpatrick was trending up and at +112 over Kuchar was good enough for me.
Day 3 Saturday 9-9
A mediocre day in the win column but that’s the beauty of place the right amount of money on the right price. An overall controversial day on the course, as you probably have heard. The morning was gettable. The afternoon gobbled up hopefuls such as Rickie Fowler, who shot an 84.
The Losses- I put my money on Snedeker again over Aphibarnrat and it was not a good ending. Took Fisher over Li as an underdog and lost. Uihlein over Finau as Tony charged up the leaderboard before the USGA essentially changed courses. Lost Beef Johnston against Phil in hopes of a big plus money hit. Tried Hatton as a big dog against Reed. Walker plus money against Grace didn’t turn out. Took Rodgers at +125 over Harman. Tried Perez as a huge dog against JT and it didn’t happen. Thought Poulter could pull off the upset of Koepka given he essentially had one terrible hole that had set him back.
The Wins- Vegas over Haas at plus money. Berger over Chappell again. Went with a gamble of Parziale at +220 over An, but again, on the weekend everyone is paired with someone who is playing similar in scoring. DeChambeau over Hideki at almost even money was a fair pick because Hideki just hasn’t been up to par yet. Tried Furyk at +150 over Noren who hasn’t impressed me this year. Fitzpatrick at +125 was an easy choice over Leishman. Henley at +167 over Rickie who lost it today. Rose has Stenson’s number lately. Hoffman as a dog against a soon to be charging Fleetwood cashed as well.
Day 4 Sunday 6-6-1
This was Koepka’s day from the start. People made their charges. Patrick reed -5 thru 7 at one point, Fleetwood with an incredible 63. But the ones close enough could never get it going. Berger and Finau faltered, DJ struggled on short putts all day.
The Losses- Thought Walker could make a push Sunday and at plus money against a fading Hideki, I felt it was a good pick. Perez over Oosthuizen didn’t work out. Aphibarnrat just failed as two fatties slugged it out between him and Reed with only one doing the slugging. Stenson had a nice push Sunday as my pick, Rose, couldn’t get it going. Thought DJ for sure was going to intimidate Koepka and seize the moment. One thing that was missing from that is that DJ was not using driver then wedge as he normally does. This course forced him to play differently which I think when Sunday nerves hit, and you can’t fall back on your usual game, it gets you. Berger over Finau lost as well as both faded with them not having the luxury of playing in the morning again.
Pushed a +118 Poulter against Grace
The Wins- I had eggs at plus money over Snedeker who had failed me all tournament. Scott Pierce caught the unlucky break of being in the afternoon on Saturday so I took him over a bottom feeder Steele. Loved Fleetwood over Henley as he made a charge for the ages. Casey over Molinari wasn’t a great price but he won. Fitzpatrick as a +170 dog to JT is shocking when he’s a very solid player. JT hasn’t been crazy good this year, he just had the one by his name. Was also very confident in Hoffman as a dog against Gary Woodland.
After it was all said and done, great tournament for us. And unlike Koepka, we have the opportunity of moving on right away after we win. We go to The Travelers in Connecticut, where everyone remembers Spieth famously holing out from the sand in the playoff. Winners have consistently been between 12-16 under and although most of the previous winners have been kind of off names, I wouldn’t expect that this year. Voted on by the players themselves as one of the best hosting tournaments, this field has gotten stronger over the past few years, gaining better and bigger names. So it will be more competitive at the top of the leaderboard with, perhaps, a big name getting back on track.
Keep paying attention to the picks. We are onto the next. As always #TeamGetUnits