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#TeamGetUnits

A Letter to the Author of this Editorial

 

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Allow me to start by saying, I am very much interested in squeezing money out of sportsbooks. Would love to take my fair share of that money. The collective group of casino sportsbooks in Nevada made $250 million in revenue over the course of 2017.  As of 2017 there were 192 sportsbooks across the state, so that means the average revenue each book made per month is $1,302,083. I get not all months and not all books are the same but you get the point. Doesn’t seem that glamorous now.

Now onto what really got this post going. Not to pick on whoever wrote this, because this is a very popular, uneducated opinion. This just happened to come from my home state and it caught my attention when I was hoping for the latest news of legalization. Feel free to read:

Ohio Should Avoid W. Va.’s Mistakes

It is pretty harmless. I actually am very much in agreement that racinos and casinos should not be able to monopolize the market. It would make things very inconvenient for everyone involved and is not fair to the people who can provide that convenience. Couldn’t agree more.

BUT… as you read the article, it goes into that integrity fee thing. For those who don’t know, the NBA and MLB were leading the charge on taking, in the writer’s words, a modest 1% from the books. These leagues, worth billions of dollars, want a piece of the action now and labeling it with integrity purposes. You mean give the leagues that have many teams blatantly tanking with 30 games left an extra piece to hold up that moral standard said leagues exude.

Sportsbooks will inevitably makeup that 1% from somewhere which would hurt the publics ROI. The leagues will benefit a significant amount without the chump charge because of how many more viewers they will be getting with the increased action. Most of them could use the boost. NFL has taken a large publicity hit recently. The MLB is a boring product. The NBA is polarizing with NCAAB. All sides could use this. And about that $250 million in revenue all Nevada books took home, that’s off of a wagered $4.8 BILLION. They won more times than not on $4.8 billion and only brought home a quarter of a billion dollars. That means they take home 4-5% and these leagues (again, worth multiple billions) want an “integrity fee” that’s equivalent to 20-25% of their entire revenue.  How modest of them. Seems like a squeeze to me, which is incredible coming from leagues who can’t even keep their own teams from trying to lose.

I know the age old argument against it with players betting on games. Yes, that is a possibility… with shady, shadowy, underground figures that are readily available currently. Legalizing sports betting IS monitoring these actions.  Books will limit bets to a certain amount, which means no one is risking millions of dollars for a $10k drop in the bucket. And if you think Pete Rose was walking into a public sportsbook to bet, then you and I live in two different worlds. Legalizing would actually help this angle not hurt it. Starting to make sense?

Not trying to pick on the person who wrote this but like I said, completely uneducated. Not everyone is going to be, which is fine. I even agree with one of their points. But I couldn’t help myself when I see that my home state should learn from another’s mistakes, when in fact that state correctly told the leagues to piss off. It’s sort of like when you see a homeless person with the “Need money for beer” sign. I’d respect you much more if you were truthful in the name of the fee.

Fort Worth Invitational Recap

Total Units: +16.94

Record: 21-13-5

Win Percentage 61.8%

Started off hot again having a fantastic Thursday.  Things slowed down as the week progressed, with Sunday being the only loss across the board.

It’s another positive tournament with The Memorial on the Horizon.  Justin Rose continues to be one of the most steady and reliable golfers in the world. Brooks Koepka was on his tail but never a real threat.  As soon as Rose took over the lead it was on cruise control.

Day 1 Thursday: 6-2

Put small bets on Kisner over Spieth and O’Hair over Hadley given the price they were receiving.  Kisner has done very well in this tournament in the past and he just didn’t get anything going. O’Hair was a value pick as I didn’t think a +120 price was fair.  Only two losses for the day.

Colonial is not a bombers course, or an inaccurate driver’s course rather.  That’s why Rickie getting -105 vs. Rahm was a safe pick for decent odds. Put a hard bet on this one.  Cashed Dufner over Harman since he has played very well in this tournament as well. Harman I don’t think has it clicking right now.  I fortunately caught Grillo before he found his swing and cashed Charley Hoffman with plus money.  Austin Cook over Russell Henley was my least confident pick with the smallest wager.  Was hoping the rookie would pull through with plus money and fortunately did. Justin Rose over Aaron Wise was the easiest pick of the day.  Yes, Aaron Wise just won a tournament and turned a corner.  Public sees that and likes that play.  I see that and think he will have a tournament hangover.  He hasn’t won before, hasn’t had to get that attention and felt that celebration, and then turn around and head to the next tournament.  Easy money. Adam Scott getting plus money from Webb Simpson was a nice value.  He has started to get back to form and as long as putter isn’t hurting him, he can help out a bettor. He worked out and onto day two we go.

Day 2 Friday: 4-2-1

To start, Kisner was +195.  Hard to resist that number and it almost paid off.  Sad it didn’t but it happens and, as always, it’s golf. He pushed with Spieth.  Tried some continuation bets, riding some momentum since there was a lot of it.  Charley Hoffman got smoked as Grillo took him to the woodshed. Dufner had a terrible day that I didn’t see coming.  It’s one thing to not play as well as the H2H but he played himself out of making the cut.

Onto the good stuff.  Rose was again an easy pick.  Wise missed the cut and I figured he would struggle.  Louis Oosthuizen is just a quality player who is familiar with the course and has played well there.  I think Cameron Smith is still pulling money from his performance at The Masters. He is a terribly accurate driver of the ball so Louis would edge him out in my eyes and he did. Nick Watney had a horrific Day 1 and is 182nd in driving accuracy. I picked Russell Knox over him.  Knox has been playing some quality golf and that was a wrap there.  Rickie over Rahm again with better odds than yesterday and, unsurprising to me, edged him again. Solid cut day all around.

Day 3 Saturday: 7-4-1

Just an OK day Saturday.  I expected more from Cejka against Kevin Na, but Na mopped the floor with him. Na is playing some fantastic golf, not as fidgety and slow as he used to be either.  Beau Hossler I thought was a safe play but he was horrible down the stretch.  He is on my list of stay-aways until further notice.  Ryan Armour has been playing well and I picked Jason Kokrak over him. Lesson learned.  Martin Piller was doing very well the first two days, so having him as a great value pick I thought could work out. It did not. McGirt pushed with Chris Kirk at a good price so that hurt as well.

On a good note, continued to ride the Rose wave and, this time, over Grillo.  Brooks Koepka outdueled a quality Satoshi Kodaira for me. Rickie had a pretty rough price but I decided to take him for an easy dub over Tom Lovelady.  Charley Hoffman over Andrew Putnam was an easy choice with Putnam sitting 134th in driving accuracy.  I took Russell Knox over Jimmy Walker as well.

When it comes to making the cut, the players that are paired typically have the same scores.  That means they are playing similar golf.  When it came to choosing Tim Herron over Streelman at +219, that’s what was going through my mind. Streelman is a solid golfer but nothing that I feel warrants those odds. Steve Stricker getting +150 against Spieth is not smart at the surface.  But when you realize he is playing solid on Champions Tour and is a past winner here, I took it and it paid. Time for the final day.

Day 4 Sunday: 4-5-3

Final day was the lone losing day.  At one point it was looking ROUGH so, sad to say, it ended up being fine. Beau Hossler continued to not play well, which cost him against Hadley.  Matt Kuchar amazingly lost to Joaquin Niemann. Rickie couldn’t get it done against a surging Hoffman. Brooks Koepka edged Justin Rose as he was cruising to victory. I took a flyer on Corey Conners given the value and that wasn’t close. I pushed on Oosthuizen vs. Rahm, Satoshi vs. Harris English, and Knox vs. Joel Dahmen. Hard to figure the last one but it happens.

And the saving face picks. Michael Thompson took down Whee Kim.  I took Kevin Na over Tyrone Van Aswegen which paid off. He torched the course on the final day. Kokrak did not play spectacular the remainder of the tournament so I took Tim Herron over him and Herron cashed again at great odds. Ryan Armour over JT Poston at almost even money was a simple decision as well.

Not too bad of a tournament.  Looking forward to The Memorial, which in my eyes is the 6th Major.  Dufner took it home last year, overcoming a 77 on Saturday.  The field is epic and should be a great tournament with Major level conditions. I have 11 picks on the line for Thursday and will recap later.  Thanks for reading and stay tuned.

#TeamGetUnits

Stanley Cup Final Game 2

Pick: Under 5.5

Units: 1

To start, I haven’t delved too much into the NHL to this point.  It’ll be something that will come down the road, so this is just an interest play.

My choice on the under comes from the fact that aside from a somewhat fluky game from Fleury in game 1, the Golden Knights have given up an average of 2.18 goals over the last two series.  The Capitals aren’t far behind with an average goals against of 2.23 over the past two series.  In my eyes they will turn up the intensity tonight and I expect to see a 3-1, 4-1, 3-2 kind of game grinding it out.

Looking forward to see how it plays out.  We can recap this when it’s over.

Byron Nelson Recap

PGA Tour Byron Nelson Recap. Aaron Wise breaks through while we gain 9.2 units for the tournament

Byron Nelson +9.2 units

A little recap of how the Byron Nelson played out for yours truly.  Started off hot and cooled off towards the end. Which it probably should be the opposite usually, especially on a new course for these players.

You can always count on the public overplaying things like Spieth at his home course, or Spieth in general. His lines are always outrageous and there is value there when you catch the right golfer.

Thursday: 2-1-1
Leishman was a runaway. Chose him because of the hype surrounding Adam Scott coming into it. Leishman is always a solid play and when he is even money in this scenario and the public all over Scott, it was an easy play. Howell over gribble was a safe pick. Haas faltered late and Knox salvaged a tie. Game, set, match. Time to move on.

Friday 4-1-1
This was a great day, close to being perfect. If it weren’t for Sergio bogeying two of the last three to tie, and jimmy walker missing Spieths pace by one shot, would have been a coming out party. Regardless, I will never complain about a day with these scores.
Started off with Adam Scott plus money after leishmans stellar Thursday. Funny thing about golf is that no one duplicates those kind of days back to back. Public sees leishman -10 after one day is all over it. Easy money. The eventual champ, Aaron wise over Keith Mitchell was a play of who I thought was more ready between the two rookies after day 1. Cashed it. Branden grace was my safe play against sneds. Hideki getting good odds against Kuch was an easy pick for me. He didn’t have a great tournament but he’s still one of the best in the world and on a normal day, better than Kuchar. This was one of those days.

Saturday 1-3-1
Should have known when Hideki tied Johnson Wagner for a tough push that it would be one of those days. Grace pounded Ancer as expected but it went downhill quickly. Matt Jones surprisingly humped Adam Scott into submission by 4. Leishman kicked off the weekend by losing by 1 to Aaron wise in what would become a trend and Kevin Na edged out Jimmy walker by 1. Not good. Not a quitter though.

Sunday 4-3
Grace and Hideki were my easy picks. Grace was no contest and nearly made a run at first. A big name like Hideki over a rookie is gonna get units more often than not. Jimmy walker over Na was just a play on the fact that Kevin Na has rarely fared well in the final group or two. Just think he gets in his own head and i would point to his reaction to a lip out on Sunday as case and point. Composure would be key on a Sunday, and although some guys have reactions to good or bad, Na doesn’t regroup and stays tilted. Nick Taylor over Vaughn Taylor was a value play. Nick isn’t as bad as the price made him look and Vaughn certainly isn’t as good as the price he was getting. Got units. Billy Horschel had a disappointing tournament and so I went with Wagner who was playing very well and had a value price. Same with Uihlein. Thought he had a Sunday run in him with no pressure of being near the top and at a good price against Adam Scott. Whoops. Still came out ahead which is the only thing that matters

Tourney Totals
11-8-3
Up 9.2 units
58%

Onto Colonial and the Ft Worth Invitational. Look for good numbers from accurate drivers of the ball. We can only take what we know and apply it so using the driving accuracy stats will be important to gauge success for this one. Rickie is traditionally more accurate than Jon Rahm so that’s my first big play. It’s golf so a lot of times there needs to be adjusted strategies depending who has it for the week, who just set a course record cause they won’t do it back to back, etc. Golfs a beautiful thing in that aspect, where you just don’t know what can happen and, a lot of times, there’s no way to see the result coming.

Podcasts and more website content to come soon.

Follow your boy for some occasional random stats or stupid meaningless tweets. Whichever one you prefer. @MattGozzer

Team Get Units from B4TB

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Bad For The Books is a premier sports betting website providing key stats, information and betting picks. The contributors to this site have proven records with documented history.

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Matt Fugazzi – @MattGozzer

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