Riceish: Week in Review 5/24/18-5/31/18

Another week in the books. Goal is to be positive every week. We did just that, KINDA.

5/24

Rockets +1.5

Over 219

The best team in the league all year and they were home dogs? I’ll take that every time. I thought it would be an absolute track meet, like 120-115 or something like that, but it didn’t turn out that way. Went heavy on both of them. With the split, the house got to keep some of the juice. It is what it is. Move on to the next one.

-.24 units

5/25

Cavs -7

Under 201.5

The most confident bet I had all week was the Cavs in this game. Cavs averaged 104 at home in the playoffs and the Celtics averaged 94 on the road in the playoffs. The numbers continued to stay true. Cavs won by 10, but the total went over. Only had 1 unit on the total, so not much of a loss.

+3.85 units

Took the next 2 nights off. I couldn’t get a read on either game. When 2 marquee players like Kevin Love and Chris Paul can’t play in the games due to injury, it’s tough to gauge. Especially, when you’re in the playoffs. It’s not always a bad thing to take the night off.

5/28

Golden Knights -1.5

Over 5.5

First NHL action ever and let me tell you, it is absolutely electric. The crowd in Las Vegas was incredible and really helped the Knights. I knew that they would come out swingin and the Capitals didn’t back down for shit. Game was back and forth all night with tons of action, just like I thought. We lucked out at the end with an empty net goal to get the spread, but I’ve been on the other side of that plenty of times. I was due for one. Hockey might be my new thing. Going to have to do some more research and figure out the trends a little more before we dive all in.

+5.80 units

Rockets ML

Over 208

Thought I was going to catch a quick one here. The Rockets were the best team in the league all year. Playing game 7 at home I thought they could pull it out. I know they were without CP3, but still. When you miss 25+ 3 pointers in a row, you probably aren’t going to beat anyone. Certainly not going to get to the total either. Just think if they hit 6/25 from 3, which is well below their 33.7% on the year, they go over and possibly win the game.

-4 units

Total +1.8 units on night

5/30

Capitals +1.5

Over 5.5

I totally screwed this one up. During the playoffs the Capitals averaged 4.5 points in game 2. The Golden Knights only averaged 2.5. Had the Capitals all night and I totally meant to do Capitals ML, not the spread. Payout would of been much better. Missed the total by .5 because Holtby may have made the save of the series. I can’t wait for game 3.

-.18 units

5/31

Warriors -12.5

Took the Warriors here because in game 1 of each series in the playoffs their margin of victories were: 21, 22, 13. The Cavs on the other hand: -8, 1, -25. Cavs lead majority of the first half, but the Warriors came back to tie it up at 56. Seemed like that was the best punch the Cavs had and the Warriors took it like Champs do. Second half, the cavs were even better. Withstood multiple Warrior runs. Have to give credit where credit is due to the Cavs. We will be better next week.

-5 units

WEEK TOTAL +.23 units

Not what we are looking for as far as profits go. Pretty tough week, but we didn’t lose anything. Look for big things ahead this week

A Letter to the Author of this Editorial

 

architecture bright cars casino
Photo by Paul IJsendoorn on Pexels.com

Allow me to start by saying, I am very much interested in squeezing money out of sportsbooks. Would love to take my fair share of that money. The collective group of casino sportsbooks in Nevada made $250 million in revenue over the course of 2017.  As of 2017 there were 192 sportsbooks across the state, so that means the average revenue each book made per month is $1,302,083. I get not all months and not all books are the same but you get the point. Doesn’t seem that glamorous now.

Now onto what really got this post going. Not to pick on whoever wrote this, because this is a very popular, uneducated opinion. This just happened to come from my home state and it caught my attention when I was hoping for the latest news of legalization. Feel free to read:

Ohio Should Avoid W. Va.’s Mistakes

It is pretty harmless. I actually am very much in agreement that racinos and casinos should not be able to monopolize the market. It would make things very inconvenient for everyone involved and is not fair to the people who can provide that convenience. Couldn’t agree more.

BUT… as you read the article, it goes into that integrity fee thing. For those who don’t know, the NBA and MLB were leading the charge on taking, in the writer’s words, a modest 1% from the books. These leagues, worth billions of dollars, want a piece of the action now and labeling it with integrity purposes. You mean give the leagues that have many teams blatantly tanking with 30 games left an extra piece to hold up that moral standard said leagues exude.

Sportsbooks will inevitably makeup that 1% from somewhere which would hurt the publics ROI. The leagues will benefit a significant amount without the chump charge because of how many more viewers they will be getting with the increased action. Most of them could use the boost. NFL has taken a large publicity hit recently. The MLB is a boring product. The NBA is polarizing with NCAAB. All sides could use this. And about that $250 million in revenue all Nevada books took home, that’s off of a wagered $4.8 BILLION. They won more times than not on $4.8 billion and only brought home a quarter of a billion dollars. That means they take home 4-5% and these leagues (again, worth multiple billions) want an “integrity fee” that’s equivalent to 20-25% of their entire revenue.  How modest of them. Seems like a squeeze to me, which is incredible coming from leagues who can’t even keep their own teams from trying to lose.

I know the age old argument against it with players betting on games. Yes, that is a possibility… with shady, shadowy, underground figures that are readily available currently. Legalizing sports betting IS monitoring these actions.  Books will limit bets to a certain amount, which means no one is risking millions of dollars for a $10k drop in the bucket. And if you think Pete Rose was walking into a public sportsbook to bet, then you and I live in two different worlds. Legalizing would actually help this angle not hurt it. Starting to make sense?

Not trying to pick on the person who wrote this but like I said, completely uneducated. Not everyone is going to be, which is fine. I even agree with one of their points. But I couldn’t help myself when I see that my home state should learn from another’s mistakes, when in fact that state correctly told the leagues to piss off. It’s sort of like when you see a homeless person with the “Need money for beer” sign. I’d respect you much more if you were truthful in the name of the fee.

Fort Worth Invitational Recap

Total Units: +16.94

Record: 21-13-5

Win Percentage 61.8%

Started off hot again having a fantastic Thursday.  Things slowed down as the week progressed, with Sunday being the only loss across the board.

It’s another positive tournament with The Memorial on the Horizon.  Justin Rose continues to be one of the most steady and reliable golfers in the world. Brooks Koepka was on his tail but never a real threat.  As soon as Rose took over the lead it was on cruise control.

Day 1 Thursday: 6-2

Put small bets on Kisner over Spieth and O’Hair over Hadley given the price they were receiving.  Kisner has done very well in this tournament in the past and he just didn’t get anything going. O’Hair was a value pick as I didn’t think a +120 price was fair.  Only two losses for the day.

Colonial is not a bombers course, or an inaccurate driver’s course rather.  That’s why Rickie getting -105 vs. Rahm was a safe pick for decent odds. Put a hard bet on this one.  Cashed Dufner over Harman since he has played very well in this tournament as well. Harman I don’t think has it clicking right now.  I fortunately caught Grillo before he found his swing and cashed Charley Hoffman with plus money.  Austin Cook over Russell Henley was my least confident pick with the smallest wager.  Was hoping the rookie would pull through with plus money and fortunately did. Justin Rose over Aaron Wise was the easiest pick of the day.  Yes, Aaron Wise just won a tournament and turned a corner.  Public sees that and likes that play.  I see that and think he will have a tournament hangover.  He hasn’t won before, hasn’t had to get that attention and felt that celebration, and then turn around and head to the next tournament.  Easy money. Adam Scott getting plus money from Webb Simpson was a nice value.  He has started to get back to form and as long as putter isn’t hurting him, he can help out a bettor. He worked out and onto day two we go.

Day 2 Friday: 4-2-1

To start, Kisner was +195.  Hard to resist that number and it almost paid off.  Sad it didn’t but it happens and, as always, it’s golf. He pushed with Spieth.  Tried some continuation bets, riding some momentum since there was a lot of it.  Charley Hoffman got smoked as Grillo took him to the woodshed. Dufner had a terrible day that I didn’t see coming.  It’s one thing to not play as well as the H2H but he played himself out of making the cut.

Onto the good stuff.  Rose was again an easy pick.  Wise missed the cut and I figured he would struggle.  Louis Oosthuizen is just a quality player who is familiar with the course and has played well there.  I think Cameron Smith is still pulling money from his performance at The Masters. He is a terribly accurate driver of the ball so Louis would edge him out in my eyes and he did. Nick Watney had a horrific Day 1 and is 182nd in driving accuracy. I picked Russell Knox over him.  Knox has been playing some quality golf and that was a wrap there.  Rickie over Rahm again with better odds than yesterday and, unsurprising to me, edged him again. Solid cut day all around.

Day 3 Saturday: 7-4-1

Just an OK day Saturday.  I expected more from Cejka against Kevin Na, but Na mopped the floor with him. Na is playing some fantastic golf, not as fidgety and slow as he used to be either.  Beau Hossler I thought was a safe play but he was horrible down the stretch.  He is on my list of stay-aways until further notice.  Ryan Armour has been playing well and I picked Jason Kokrak over him. Lesson learned.  Martin Piller was doing very well the first two days, so having him as a great value pick I thought could work out. It did not. McGirt pushed with Chris Kirk at a good price so that hurt as well.

On a good note, continued to ride the Rose wave and, this time, over Grillo.  Brooks Koepka outdueled a quality Satoshi Kodaira for me. Rickie had a pretty rough price but I decided to take him for an easy dub over Tom Lovelady.  Charley Hoffman over Andrew Putnam was an easy choice with Putnam sitting 134th in driving accuracy.  I took Russell Knox over Jimmy Walker as well.

When it comes to making the cut, the players that are paired typically have the same scores.  That means they are playing similar golf.  When it came to choosing Tim Herron over Streelman at +219, that’s what was going through my mind. Streelman is a solid golfer but nothing that I feel warrants those odds. Steve Stricker getting +150 against Spieth is not smart at the surface.  But when you realize he is playing solid on Champions Tour and is a past winner here, I took it and it paid. Time for the final day.

Day 4 Sunday: 4-5-3

Final day was the lone losing day.  At one point it was looking ROUGH so, sad to say, it ended up being fine. Beau Hossler continued to not play well, which cost him against Hadley.  Matt Kuchar amazingly lost to Joaquin Niemann. Rickie couldn’t get it done against a surging Hoffman. Brooks Koepka edged Justin Rose as he was cruising to victory. I took a flyer on Corey Conners given the value and that wasn’t close. I pushed on Oosthuizen vs. Rahm, Satoshi vs. Harris English, and Knox vs. Joel Dahmen. Hard to figure the last one but it happens.

And the saving face picks. Michael Thompson took down Whee Kim.  I took Kevin Na over Tyrone Van Aswegen which paid off. He torched the course on the final day. Kokrak did not play spectacular the remainder of the tournament so I took Tim Herron over him and Herron cashed again at great odds. Ryan Armour over JT Poston at almost even money was a simple decision as well.

Not too bad of a tournament.  Looking forward to The Memorial, which in my eyes is the 6th Major.  Dufner took it home last year, overcoming a 77 on Saturday.  The field is epic and should be a great tournament with Major level conditions. I have 11 picks on the line for Thursday and will recap later.  Thanks for reading and stay tuned.

#TeamGetUnits

Stanley Cup Final Game 2

Pick: Under 5.5

Units: 1

To start, I haven’t delved too much into the NHL to this point.  It’ll be something that will come down the road, so this is just an interest play.

My choice on the under comes from the fact that aside from a somewhat fluky game from Fleury in game 1, the Golden Knights have given up an average of 2.18 goals over the last two series.  The Capitals aren’t far behind with an average goals against of 2.23 over the past two series.  In my eyes they will turn up the intensity tonight and I expect to see a 3-1, 4-1, 3-2 kind of game grinding it out.

Looking forward to see how it plays out.  We can recap this when it’s over.

Riceish: Week In Review 5/16/18-5/23/18

We about that action boss

After a long layoff from the gambling game, I’m back baby. Got a little bit of the itch taken care of a couple weeks ago in Las Vegas for March Madness. I spent all of my money, but I was positive units when it came to sports.

Which brings us to present day. Goal here is to MAKE UNITS!

Came out strong to start the week hitting my first 4.

5/16

Rockets -1.5

Over 224.5

No way the best team in the league all year loses 2 at home to start the Western Conference Finals. Simple as that. Every expert out there said they were cooked. Going to be a sweep, yadda, yadda. Nahhhh bra. As for the over, if the Rockets win in Houston, you knew it would be a track meet.

+8.98 units

5/19

Cavs -6.5

Under 205.5

The line says it all. Celtics absolutely murdered the Cavs the first 2 games. Lebron played like shit in Game 1, while Al Horford had himself a day. Game 2, the Celtics just outplayed the Cavs and looked to just be more prepared. Going to Cleveland for the young Celtics is another story though. The public says, take the Celtics! No way the Cavs will beat their ass. That’s why the public is poor. Took the under because I thought the Cavs defense would win them the game, which means the Celtics wouldn’t get their half of the points to go over.

+7.88 units

The tides turned after that.

5/20

Rockets ML

Made a dumb ass bet in game 3 of Rockets vs Warriors. Thought there were be some value in taking the Rockets money line. Rookie move. Warriors playing at home, where they hadn’t lost in the playoffs since the 2016 final was stupid. Warriors won by 41. Classic.

-1 unit

5/21

Cavs ML

Under 206

Couldn’t get a read on what the final score would be, but I knew the Cavs would win. Again the Celtics just can’t get them at home with their young roster and playoff experience of the Cavs. Consider it their first “trip” on the road. Knew it would be closer than the first but Cavs still win. Thought that both teams would come out STRONG on defense and it would be way under. Not the case at all. Whatever

-1.37 units

5/22

Warriors ML

Absolute worst bet of the week and I’m going to learn from it. Bet 5 units to win 1.45. Dumbest shit ever. Thought there was no chance the Rockets could win there. It kind of proves my point that if I don’t have a good feel on the spread then just take the underdog. Dumb. Oh well though, I would of learned my lesson without failing.

-5 units

End the week strong

5/23

Celtics -1

LOOK AT THAT LINE. The boys in the desert know their shit. The public thinks Lebron comes out swinging, going back to the Garden. Brad Stevens calls bullshit. Celtics are 9-0 at home in the playoffs this year and Lebron is 0-5 when the series is tied 2-2. That simple.

+2.8 units

Anytime we end UP UNITS at the end of the week is a good week. We will keep logging our week to week picks, so we can learn from the good things and try resist the temptation of the bullshit (Warriors ML to win 1ish unit).

GRAND TOTAL +12.29 UNITS

Riceish review will talk to you homies next week. Be sure to keep up day to day.