Offseason Series: Cleveland Browns

This episode features special guest and lifetime Cleveland Browns fan: Danny Milligan.  We take the time to discuss the details of the Browns and their outlook moving forward. 

We go over wins and losses for their upcoming season (Hint: he’s optimistic) and dive into the most recent season.

It was Super Bowl Sunday when this was recorded, so we made some picks as well.

Apologies for the sound, it was actually worse than this originally.

This episode features special guest and lifetime Cleveland Browns fan: Danny Milligan.  We take the time to discuss the details of the Browns and their outlook moving forward.

We go over wins and losses for their upcoming season (Hint: he’s optimistic) and dive into the most recent season. Baker Mayfield, Hue Jackson, Miami North and many more topics.

It was Super Bowl Sunday when this was recorded, so we made some picks as well.

Apologies for the sound, it was actually worse than this originally.

 

 

Kronicle:

https://soundcloud.com/the-chemist-10

Music from Soundcloud

Music provided by RFM: https://youtu.be/dPEoasBHNiA

McPhil’s NFL Week 7 Picks

NFL picks ATS: 1-0

The Seahawks put down the beating I expected on the Raiders in London last week and were able to cover the spread very easily. From here on out I will be giving two picks for the NFL weekly. Without further delay, let’s get in to the picks.

Chargers vs. Titans Chargers cover (-7)

We had good luck in London last week with the Seahawks, and to London we return. This week the Chargers take on the struggling Tennessee Titans. Bettors likely have nightmares when it comes to the Chargers, as they have blown leads, lost games and failed to cover spreads in a variety of hilarious fashions. I won’t tell you this is a new Chargers team, but I will tell you they are absolutely rolling right now. They suffered two early losses at the hands of the Rams and the Chiefs, which at this point I can’t seriously fault them for. Phillips Rivers has been playing like an MVP candidate, and is top ten in the NFL in a myriad of metrics.  He is top-ten in play action differential for comp % and YPA, top-ten in PFF grade, first in passer rating under pressure, top-ten in adjusted completion % and finally, passer rating when clean. The offense has been rolling behind Rivers’ performance and Melvin Gordon’s dominance both running and catching the ball.

Turning to the Titans who were just thrashed at home by the Ravens, the only advantages I can find are in the offensive line. Their secondary and defense as a whole have been slightly above average, and I expect the offensive line to give the Chargers a little bit of trouble considering their run-defense isn’t the best and Bosa is still out. If analytics has taught me anything over the last two years, it’s that the most important aspects of the game are stopping the pass and being able to pass. In both of these the Chargers have a clear advantage while Mariota struggles to get healthy and the passing and run game both look lethargic for the Titans. As we’ve seen in the last year, and even last week, the best team in London tends to win, and tends to win big. I’d like it better if you could get it at 6.5, but I’m more than willing to take the chance on -7.

Final score prediction: 28-16, Chargers

Bengals @ Chiefs Chiefs cover (-6.5)

Look, I won’t belabor the point, but the Bengals are historically awful in prime-time games. They are missing their best coverage linebacker in Nick Vigil and already struggle to cover tight ends. Ebron got in the end zone for the Colts. Baltimore nearly came all the way back by shredding the Bengals with short routes by the tight ends. The Falcons used their backup tight end to shred the Bengals up the seam in the red zone for a touchdown. Vance McDonald seemed to truck a defender every time he touched the ball. If we’re being honest, the Bengals are one bad play in the Falcons game and one forced fumble away in the Colts game from being 2-4 instead of 4-2. The defense struggled to find ways to slow down the Steelers, Falcons and Panthers, and now they’re about to play the scorching hot Kansas City Chiefs coming off of a narrow loss to the Patriots on the road.

Can I take the Chiefs twice?

Honestly, the Bengals offense has been surprising this year and even more surprisingly the defense has struggled to slow opposing offenses down. Even with the Chiefs’ sub-par defense, I fully expect them to be able to stop the Bengals at home more frequently than the Bengals are able to stop the Chiefs. Tyreek Hill will give the defense fits over the top if they ever try to play single-high and Travis Kelce will punish them over the middle. Add Kareem Hunt and Mahomes to the mix and suddenly, winning but a touchdown seems very realistic. Kansas City is 6-0 against the spread this season. Keep riding the red-hot Chiefs.

Final score prediction: 34-24, Chiefs.

McPhilPicks – NFL Week 6

Oakland Raiders vs. Seattle Seahawks (SEA -3): Seattle Covers

To start, here are the reasons you shouldn’t be scared away by the fact that this is a London game. Yes, weird things can happen, but there have been some trends over the last few seasons that make this matchup very appealing. Firstly, there were five games played in London last season. The average margin of victory for the winning team in those games was 26.4 points. Secondly, since 2015 there have been 12 games played in London, and the average combined point total for these games is 45 points per game.

So, what do you make of these trends and the teams that are playing? Well for one, the already porous Raiders defense is likely going to play even worse than usual. Their defensive line has generated only 46 total pressures and six sacks on the season, so I’m not worried that they’re going to put pressure on Russell Wilson. According to PFF’s Austin Gayle Oakland’s linebackers have given up a perfect passer rating when targeted throughout this season for 495 yards to go along with six touchdowns and 19 first downs. Add that to the fact that the Raiders are struggling to find any consistency in their secondary rotation after benching Gareon Conley for poor play, and this defense looks like even more of a mess than it does at first glance.

The Seahawks aren’t an inspiring NFL team to watch this year, but they are just good enough to put a beating on a floundering Raiders team. I expect their defensive line to give the Raiders’ offense a lot of trouble considering rookie LT Kolton Miller’s struggles, All-Pro RT Donald Penn is on IR and star guard Kelechi Osemele is doubtful for the game. Sure, the defense is a far-cry from the Legion of Boom that it once was, but Bobby Wagner is still one of the best linebackers in the sport, Tedric Thompson has filled in admirably in Earl Thomas’ absence and Bradley McDougald is one of the best safeties you’ve never heard of.

Considering the injuries to the Raiders on offense and the gaping holes on their defense, I see Seattle covering the spread without much issue. They are the better team, and as the average margin of victory shows, typically the better team wins by quite a bit in London. For this reason, I’m taking the Seahawks to cover the spread. I would also consider taking the over, which currently sits at 48.5. Based on the high-scoring history of London games paired with the overall weakness of the defenses in this game, I expect this point total to exceed the over.

Final score prediction: 34-24